In 1996 a lucky combination of voter distribution and electorate boundaries gave the Liberals 55.7% of the seats with only 44% of first preference votes (2% less than Labor got in 1999!). This allowed Jeff to lead with confidence; over-confidence as it turned out.
In 1999 the Liberal vote dropped by 2.5% to 41.5% but the number of seats dropped by over 12% to around 42% (the exact numbers still to be decided). The dramatic change in the number of Liberal MLAs was caused primarily by distortions of our electoral system, not changes in voter's opinions!
Ironically, if the result had been fairer in 1996 the Liberals would have needed the Nationals to form a majority government and Jeff would have paid more attention to the Nationals and their constituents in regional Victoria. Its likely that the coalition would not have suffered such a voter backlash in 1999 and would have continued to enjoy a clear majority.
Thus our unfair system of single-member electorates has let down all the
political parties, not to mention the people of Victoria. The time is
right for electoral reform.
Contact: Dr Lee Naish, President, Victorian Branch, Proportional Representation Society of Australia, E-mail: lee@cs.mu.oz.au